Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Tribal Group plc (TRB.L)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Software - ApplicationSector: Technology

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$0.27 - $0.38$0.32
Multi-Stage$0.44 - $0.48$0.46
Blended Fair Value$0.39
Current Price$0.44
Upside-10.27%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-8.34%-1.32%0.010.010.010.010.010.010.010.000.000.01
YoY Growth--0.87%-49.67%9.22%11.14%4.98%9.99%0.00%0.00%-100.00%13.04%
Dividend Yield--1.39%1.16%2.71%1.15%1.21%1.61%1.28%0.00%0.00%2.29%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)9.98
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)2.77
(=) Cash Retained (M)7.21
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)2.001.250.75
Cash Retained (M)7.217.217.21
(-) Cash Required (M)-2.00-1.25-0.75
(=) Excess Retained (M)5.215.966.46
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)214.85214.85214.85
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.020.030.03
LTM Dividend per Share0.010.010.01
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.020.030.03
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.040.040.04
WACC / Discount Rate9.92%9.92%9.92%
Growth Rate-3.32%-2.32%-1.32%
Fair Value$0.27$0.32$0.38
Upside / Downside-37.69%-25.52%-13.38%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)9.989.749.529.309.088.879.13
Payout Ratio27.73%40.18%52.64%65.09%77.55%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)2.773.925.016.057.047.988.45

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.92%9.92%9.92%
Growth Rate-3.32%-2.32%-1.32%
Year 1 PV (M)3.533.563.60
Year 2 PV (M)4.064.154.23
Year 3 PV (M)4.424.564.70
Year 4 PV (M)4.634.825.02
Year 5 PV (M)4.724.975.23
PV of Terminal Value (M)72.2376.0580.02
Equity Value (M)93.5998.11102.80
Shares Outstanding (M)214.85214.85214.85
Fair Value$0.44$0.46$0.48
Upside / Downside0.14%4.97%10.00%

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