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Definitive Analysis

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T S Flour Mill Public Company Limited (TMILL.BK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Agricultural Farm ProductsSector: Consumer Defensive

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$0.88 - $1.36$1.11
Multi-Stage$2.10 - $2.31$2.20
Blended Fair Value$1.65
Current Price$2.20
Upside-24.79%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-21.17%-0.21%0.070.200.200.190.180.220.140.210.130.06
YoY Growth---66.67%0.00%5.00%5.26%-17.39%53.33%-30.11%56.36%140.02%-20.00%
Dividend Yield--3.86%5.41%5.22%4.87%5.39%9.01%4.85%6.31%3.89%1.94%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)39.80
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)19.93
(=) Cash Retained (M)19.87
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)7.964.982.99
Cash Retained (M)19.8719.8719.87
(-) Cash Required (M)-7.96-4.98-2.99
(=) Excess Retained (M)11.9114.8916.88
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)413.62413.62413.62
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.030.040.04
LTM Dividend per Share0.050.050.05
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.030.040.04
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.080.080.09
WACC / Discount Rate6.31%6.31%6.31%
Growth Rate-2.21%-1.21%-0.21%
Fair Value$0.88$1.11$1.36
Upside / Downside-59.83%-49.72%-38.07%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)39.8039.3238.8438.3737.9137.4538.57
Payout Ratio50.08%58.07%66.05%74.03%82.02%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)19.9322.8325.6628.4131.0933.7135.68

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.31%6.31%6.31%
Growth Rate-2.21%-1.21%-0.21%
Year 1 PV (M)21.2621.4821.69
Year 2 PV (M)22.2422.7023.16
Year 3 PV (M)22.9323.6524.37
Year 4 PV (M)23.3724.3425.34
Year 5 PV (M)23.5924.8226.11
PV of Terminal Value (M)754.75794.14835.15
Equity Value (M)868.15911.12955.83
Shares Outstanding (M)413.62413.62413.62
Fair Value$2.10$2.20$2.31
Upside / Downside-4.59%0.13%5.04%

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