Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Tipco Foods Public Company Limited (TIPCO.BK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Beverages - Non-AlcoholicSector: Consumer Defensive

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$4.95 - $7.60$6.18
Multi-Stage$10.81 - $11.90$11.34
Blended Fair Value$8.76
Current Price$8.40
Upside4.33%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS5.15%40.98%0.640.820.780.890.350.500.510.410.480.00
YoY Growth---22.22%5.20%-12.50%151.44%-28.57%-2.00%22.08%-14.34%0.00%-100.00%
Dividend Yield--6.79%7.96%7.96%9.05%3.28%11.23%6.53%3.17%3.03%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)258.68
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)86.86
(=) Cash Retained (M)171.82
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)51.7432.3419.40
Cash Retained (M)171.82171.82171.82
(-) Cash Required (M)-51.74-32.34-19.40
(=) Excess Retained (M)120.08139.48152.42
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)476.59476.59476.59
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.250.290.32
LTM Dividend per Share0.180.180.18
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.250.290.32
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.430.470.50
WACC / Discount Rate6.61%6.61%6.61%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$4.95$6.18$7.60
Upside / Downside-41.13%-26.40%-9.51%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)258.68256.10253.54251.00248.49246.01253.39
Payout Ratio33.58%44.86%56.15%67.43%78.72%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)86.86114.89142.35169.25195.60221.41234.38

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.61%6.61%6.61%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)106.69107.78108.86
Year 2 PV (M)122.74125.26127.80
Year 3 PV (M)135.51139.70143.98
Year 4 PV (M)145.42151.45157.66
Year 5 PV (M)152.85160.80169.09
PV of Terminal Value (M)4,488.054,721.754,965.09
Equity Value (M)5,151.255,406.745,672.49
Shares Outstanding (M)476.59476.59476.59
Fair Value$10.81$11.34$11.90
Upside / Downside28.67%35.06%41.69%

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