Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Sector

Triple Flag Precious Metals Corp. (TFPM)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Other Precious MetalsSector: Basic Materials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$5.37 - $7.33$6.37
Multi-Stage$6.82 - $7.47$7.14
Blended Fair Value$6.75
Current Price$23.69
Upside-71.51%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS0.00%0.00%0.210.200.150.070.000.000.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth--4.76%35.86%104.92%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--1.12%1.38%1.00%0.50%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)204.45
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)33.72
(=) Cash Retained (M)170.74
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)40.8925.5615.33
Cash Retained (M)170.74170.74170.74
(-) Cash Required (M)-40.89-25.56-15.33
(=) Excess Retained (M)129.85145.18155.40
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)202.68202.68202.68
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.640.720.77
LTM Dividend per Share0.170.170.17
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.640.720.77
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.810.880.93
WACC / Discount Rate12.73%12.73%12.73%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$5.37$6.37$7.33
Upside / Downside-77.33%-73.13%-69.05%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)204.45202.41200.38198.38196.40194.43200.27
Payout Ratio16.49%31.19%45.89%60.60%75.30%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)33.7263.1491.97120.21147.88174.99185.25

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate12.73%12.73%12.73%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)55.4456.0156.57
Year 2 PV (M)70.9272.3773.84
Year 3 PV (M)81.4083.9286.49
Year 4 PV (M)87.9491.5895.34
Year 5 PV (M)91.3796.13101.08
PV of Terminal Value (M)994.371,046.151,100.07
Equity Value (M)1,381.441,446.161,513.39
Shares Outstanding (M)202.68202.68202.68
Fair Value$6.82$7.14$7.47
Upside / Downside-71.23%-69.88%-68.48%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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