Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Smiths Group plc (SMIN.L)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Industrial - MachinerySector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$16.10 - $25.56$20.41
Multi-Stage$23.00 - $25.20$24.08
Blended Fair Value$22.24
Current Price$20.66
Upside7.67%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2025202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS3.82%-0.51%0.440.420.410.430.530.360.510.500.480.47
YoY Growth--3.40%2.80%-4.67%-18.92%46.83%-29.21%3.49%2.99%2.45%1.88%
Dividend Yield--0.00%2.37%2.43%2.85%3.43%2.68%3.13%3.07%3.14%3.75%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)539.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)251.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)288.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)107.8067.3840.43
Cash Retained (M)288.00288.00288.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-107.80-67.38-40.43
(=) Excess Retained (M)180.20220.63247.58
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)346.74346.74346.74
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.520.640.71
LTM Dividend per Share0.720.720.72
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.520.640.71
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.241.361.44
WACC / Discount Rate8.51%8.51%8.51%
Growth Rate0.73%1.73%2.73%
Fair Value$16.10$20.41$25.56
Upside / Downside-22.06%-1.21%23.71%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)539.00548.31557.79567.42577.23587.20604.82
Payout Ratio46.57%55.25%63.94%72.63%81.31%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)251.00302.97356.65412.10469.36528.48559.46

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.51%8.51%8.51%
Growth Rate0.73%1.73%2.73%
Year 1 PV (M)276.47279.21281.96
Year 2 PV (M)296.99302.92308.91
Year 3 PV (M)313.16322.58332.18
Year 4 PV (M)325.47338.59352.10
Year 5 PV (M)334.42351.35368.96
PV of Terminal Value (M)6,428.386,753.877,092.42
Equity Value (M)7,974.898,348.528,736.53
Shares Outstanding (M)346.74346.74346.74
Fair Value$23.00$24.08$25.20
Upside / Downside11.32%16.54%21.96%

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