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Definitive Analysis

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Shagrir Group Vehicle Services Ltd (SHGR.TA)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Specialty Business ServicesSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$68.24 - $320.45$151.22
Multi-Stage$36.11 - $39.50$37.78
Blended Fair Value$94.50
Current Price$20.68
Upside356.96%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS0.00%0.00%0.000.000.000.240.000.000.560.480.000.00
YoY Growth--0.00%0.00%-100.00%0.00%0.00%-100.00%18.18%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--0.00%0.00%0.00%1.14%0.00%0.00%4.12%2.40%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)16.63
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)5.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)11.63
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)3.332.081.25
Cash Retained (M)11.6311.6311.63
(-) Cash Required (M)-3.33-2.08-1.25
(=) Excess Retained (M)8.309.5510.38
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)10.3210.3210.32
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.800.931.01
LTM Dividend per Share0.480.480.48
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.800.931.01
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.291.411.49
WACC / Discount Rate7.49%7.49%7.49%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$68.24$151.22$320.45
Upside / Downside229.97%631.25%1,449.56%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)16.6317.7118.8620.0921.3922.7823.47
Payout Ratio30.07%42.05%54.04%66.03%78.01%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)5.007.4510.1913.2616.6920.5121.71

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.49%7.49%7.49%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)6.866.936.99
Year 2 PV (M)8.668.828.99
Year 3 PV (M)10.3810.6810.98
Year 4 PV (M)12.0412.5012.98
Year 5 PV (M)13.6314.2914.97
PV of Terminal Value (M)321.15336.66352.76
Equity Value (M)372.72389.88407.68
Shares Outstanding (M)10.3210.3210.32
Fair Value$36.11$37.78$39.50
Upside / Downside74.63%82.67%91.01%

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