Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Narmada Gelatines Limited (SHAWGELTIN.BO)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Food ConfectionersSector: Consumer Defensive

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$1,501.57 - $7,505.31$3,137.82
Multi-Stage$1,197.91 - $1,314.45$1,255.08
Blended Fair Value$2,196.45
Current Price$387.90
Upside466.24%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2025202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS-3.67%9.88%10.000.00109.9810.0110.0012.054.774.834.824.20
YoY Growth--0.00%-100.00%999.04%0.09%-17.05%152.64%-1.22%0.14%14.86%7.69%
Dividend Yield--2.58%0.00%25.87%4.96%5.47%7.74%3.06%3.58%3.54%2.99%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)231.80
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)30.25
(=) Cash Retained (M)201.55
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)46.3628.9817.39
Cash Retained (M)201.55201.55201.55
(-) Cash Required (M)-46.36-28.98-17.39
(=) Excess Retained (M)155.19172.58184.17
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)6.056.056.05
(=) Excess Retained per Share25.6528.5230.44
LTM Dividend per Share5.005.005.00
(+) Excess Retained per Share25.6528.5230.44
(=) Adjusted Dividend30.6533.5235.44
WACC / Discount Rate6.02%6.02%6.02%
Growth Rate3.90%4.90%5.90%
Fair Value$1,501.57$3,137.82$7,505.31
Upside / Downside287.10%708.93%1,834.86%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)231.80243.16255.07267.57280.68294.44303.27
Payout Ratio13.05%28.44%43.83%59.22%74.61%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)30.2569.15111.80158.46209.42264.99280.52

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.02%6.02%6.02%
Growth Rate3.90%4.90%5.90%
Year 1 PV (M)64.6165.2365.85
Year 2 PV (M)97.5799.46101.37
Year 3 PV (M)129.20132.97136.80
Year 4 PV (M)159.52165.75172.16
Year 5 PV (M)188.57197.83207.44
PV of Terminal Value (M)6,608.816,933.037,269.85
Equity Value (M)7,248.287,594.267,953.47
Shares Outstanding (M)6.056.056.05
Fair Value$1,197.91$1,255.08$1,314.45
Upside / Downside208.82%223.56%238.86%

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