Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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SAP SE (SAP.DE)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Software - ApplicationSector: Technology

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$131.81 - $324.61$196.88
Multi-Stage$102.45 - $111.93$107.11
Blended Fair Value$151.99
Current Price$258.15
Upside-41.12%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS7.46%7.95%2.182.042.441.861.591.521.421.271.171.12
YoY Growth--7.10%-16.40%31.30%17.06%4.13%7.12%11.47%8.78%4.71%10.22%
Dividend Yield--0.89%1.15%2.10%1.84%1.52%1.48%1.38%1.50%1.27%1.57%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)7,082.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)2,743.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)4,339.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)1,416.40885.25531.15
Cash Retained (M)4,339.004,339.004,339.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-1,416.40-885.25-531.15
(=) Excess Retained (M)2,922.603,453.753,807.85
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,175.731,175.731,175.73
(=) Excess Retained per Share2.492.943.24
LTM Dividend per Share2.332.332.33
(+) Excess Retained per Share2.492.943.24
(=) Adjusted Dividend4.825.275.57
WACC / Discount Rate8.72%8.72%8.72%
Growth Rate4.89%5.89%6.89%
Fair Value$131.81$196.88$324.61
Upside / Downside-48.94%-23.73%25.74%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)7,082.007,498.837,940.198,407.528,902.379,426.339,709.12
Payout Ratio38.73%48.99%59.24%69.49%79.75%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)2,743.003,673.344,703.705,842.627,099.328,483.708,980.94

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.72%8.72%8.72%
Growth Rate4.89%5.89%6.89%
Year 1 PV (M)3,346.803,378.713,410.62
Year 2 PV (M)3,904.603,979.414,054.92
Year 3 PV (M)4,418.884,546.484,676.51
Year 4 PV (M)4,892.035,081.285,275.97
Year 5 PV (M)5,326.315,585.105,853.86
PV of Terminal Value (M)98,568.98103,358.31108,332.03
Equity Value (M)120,457.59125,929.30131,603.92
Shares Outstanding (M)1,175.731,175.731,175.73
Fair Value$102.45$107.11$111.93
Upside / Downside-60.31%-58.51%-56.64%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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