Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Raia Drogasil S.A. (RADL3.SA)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Medical - PharmaceuticalsSector: Healthcare

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$60.77 - $158.30$148.35
Multi-Stage$22.67 - $24.81$23.72
Blended Fair Value$86.03
Current Price$18.42
Upside367.06%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS20.53%27.58%0.280.280.190.160.110.110.100.100.090.07
YoY Growth--1.86%43.76%22.28%39.11%2.10%7.48%1.62%11.42%26.44%192.05%
Dividend Yield--1.48%1.05%0.84%0.71%0.49%0.60%0.88%0.76%0.87%0.78%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)1,340.18
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)544.34
(=) Cash Retained (M)795.84
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)268.04167.52100.51
Cash Retained (M)795.84795.84795.84
(-) Cash Required (M)-268.04-167.52-100.51
(=) Excess Retained (M)527.80628.32695.33
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,683.711,683.711,683.71
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.310.370.41
LTM Dividend per Share0.320.320.32
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.310.370.41
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.640.700.74
WACC / Discount Rate6.61%6.61%6.61%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$60.77$148.35$158.30
Upside / Downside229.94%705.36%759.38%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)1,340.181,427.291,520.061,618.861,724.091,836.161,891.24
Payout Ratio40.62%50.49%60.37%70.25%80.12%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)544.34720.69917.661,137.201,381.401,652.541,749.40

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.61%6.61%6.61%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)669.68676.03682.38
Year 2 PV (M)792.37807.47822.70
Year 3 PV (M)912.45938.64965.33
Year 4 PV (M)1,029.941,069.551,110.29
Year 5 PV (M)1,144.911,200.211,257.62
PV of Terminal Value (M)33,616.7835,240.4836,926.33
Equity Value (M)38,166.1339,932.3841,764.65
Shares Outstanding (M)1,683.711,683.711,683.71
Fair Value$22.67$23.72$24.81
Upside / Downside23.06%28.76%34.66%

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