Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Paz Oil Company Ltd. (PZOL.TA)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Oil & Gas Refining & MarketingSector: Energy

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$366.29 - $519.33$441.80
Multi-Stage$553.66 - $607.75$580.18
Blended Fair Value$510.99
Current Price$391.90
Upside30.39%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2023202220212020201920182017201620152014
DPS0.00%0.00%0.000.000.005.4625.4736.3927.2915.4722.7445.49
YoY Growth--0.00%0.00%-100.00%-78.57%-30.00%33.33%76.47%-32.00%-50.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--0.00%0.00%0.00%2.87%13.79%11.03%8.55%4.16%6.15%12.64%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)612.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)150.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)462.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)122.4076.5045.90
Cash Retained (M)462.00462.00462.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-122.40-76.50-45.90
(=) Excess Retained (M)339.60385.50416.10
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)10.9910.9910.99
(=) Excess Retained per Share30.8935.0737.85
LTM Dividend per Share13.6513.6513.65
(+) Excess Retained per Share30.8935.0737.85
(=) Adjusted Dividend44.5448.7251.50
WACC / Discount Rate9.92%9.92%9.92%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$366.29$441.80$519.33
Upside / Downside-6.53%12.73%32.52%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)612.00605.88599.82593.82587.88582.01599.47
Payout Ratio24.51%37.61%50.71%63.80%76.90%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)150.00227.86304.14378.88452.09523.81554.51

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.92%9.92%9.92%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)205.21207.30209.40
Year 2 PV (M)246.68251.74256.85
Year 3 PV (M)276.75285.31294.04
Year 4 PV (M)297.40309.73322.43
Year 5 PV (M)310.32326.48343.31
PV of Terminal Value (M)4,749.734,997.065,254.59
Equity Value (M)6,086.096,377.626,680.62
Shares Outstanding (M)10.9910.9910.99
Fair Value$553.66$580.18$607.75
Upside / Downside41.28%48.04%55.08%

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