Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Praram 9 Hospital Public Company Limited (PR9.BK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Medical - Care FacilitiesSector: Healthcare

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$65.65 - $205.47$192.55
Multi-Stage$27.59 - $30.19$28.87
Blended Fair Value$110.71
Current Price$23.10
Upside379.26%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS25.78%0.00%0.450.300.140.110.140.140.630.060.060.00
YoY Growth--49.90%113.53%27.35%-21.81%-1.20%-77.30%942.58%-0.19%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--2.18%1.56%0.67%0.90%1.45%2.27%5.68%0.52%0.52%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)812.36
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)312.81
(=) Cash Retained (M)499.54
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)162.47101.5460.93
Cash Retained (M)499.54499.54499.54
(-) Cash Required (M)-162.47-101.54-60.93
(=) Excess Retained (M)337.07398.00438.62
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)786.30786.30786.30
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.430.510.56
LTM Dividend per Share0.400.400.40
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.430.510.56
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.830.900.96
WACC / Discount Rate6.83%6.83%6.83%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$65.65$192.55$205.47
Upside / Downside184.21%733.55%789.46%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)812.36865.16921.39981.281,045.071,113.001,146.39
Payout Ratio38.51%48.81%59.10%69.40%79.70%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)312.81422.24544.58681.04832.931,001.701,060.41

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.83%6.83%6.83%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)391.54395.25398.97
Year 2 PV (M)468.27477.19486.19
Year 3 PV (M)543.03558.62574.50
Year 4 PV (M)615.85639.54663.90
Year 5 PV (M)686.79719.96754.40
PV of Terminal Value (M)18,991.8919,909.2120,861.63
Equity Value (M)21,697.3722,699.7723,739.59
Shares Outstanding (M)786.30786.30786.30
Fair Value$27.59$28.87$30.19
Upside / Downside19.46%24.97%30.70%

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