Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Pollen Street Group Limited (POLN.L)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Asset ManagementSector: Financial Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$11.30 - $16.26$13.72
Multi-Stage$18.60 - $20.41$19.49
Blended Fair Value$16.61
Current Price$7.86
Upside111.27%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS-4.66%0.00%0.400.500.460.450.460.500.440.340.110.00
YoY Growth---21.48%9.55%2.47%-2.75%-8.10%13.73%28.86%219.75%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--5.26%8.01%9.00%4.76%4.90%5.17%3.91%2.96%1.05%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)100.47
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)40.70
(=) Cash Retained (M)59.78
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)20.0912.567.54
Cash Retained (M)59.7859.7859.78
(-) Cash Required (M)-20.09-12.56-7.54
(=) Excess Retained (M)39.6847.2252.24
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)62.7362.7362.73
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.630.750.83
LTM Dividend per Share0.650.650.65
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.630.750.83
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.281.401.48
WACC / Discount Rate9.11%9.11%9.11%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$11.30$13.72$16.26
Upside / Downside43.81%74.61%106.93%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)100.4799.4798.4797.4996.5195.5598.41
Payout Ratio40.50%50.40%60.30%70.20%80.10%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)40.7050.1359.3868.4477.3185.9991.03

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.11%9.11%9.11%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)45.4945.9546.41
Year 2 PV (M)48.8849.8850.89
Year 3 PV (M)51.1152.6954.30
Year 4 PV (M)52.3854.5556.79
Year 5 PV (M)52.8655.6158.48
PV of Terminal Value (M)916.03963.731,013.40
Equity Value (M)1,166.741,222.411,280.27
Shares Outstanding (M)62.7362.7362.73
Fair Value$18.60$19.49$20.41
Upside / Downside136.63%147.92%159.65%

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