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Definitive Analysis

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OTP Bank Nyrt. (OTP.BD)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Banks - RegionalSector: Financial Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$227,675.15 - $823,458.49$721,311.59
Multi-Stage$102,626.58 - $112,376.20$107,411.71
Blended Fair Value$414,361.65
Current Price$27,100.00
Upside1,429.01%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS18.46%13.42%547.70306.93444.730.040.04234.75234.20203.67176.72154.97
YoY Growth--78.44%-30.98%1,161,370.00%0.00%-99.98%0.23%14.99%15.25%14.03%-0.30%
Dividend Yield--2.19%1.81%4.46%0.00%0.00%2.47%1.83%1.78%2.18%2.24%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)1,081,363.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)143,038.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)938,325.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)216,272.60135,170.3881,102.23
Cash Retained (M)938,325.00938,325.00938,325.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-216,272.60-135,170.38-81,102.23
(=) Excess Retained (M)722,052.40803,154.63857,222.78
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)261.16261.16261.16
(=) Excess Retained per Share2,764.773,075.313,282.34
LTM Dividend per Share547.70547.70547.70
(+) Excess Retained per Share2,764.773,075.313,282.34
(=) Adjusted Dividend3,312.473,623.013,830.04
WACC / Discount Rate7.03%7.03%7.03%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$227,675.15$721,311.59$823,458.49
Upside / Downside740.13%2,561.67%2,938.59%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)1,081,363.001,151,651.601,226,508.951,306,232.031,391,137.111,481,561.021,526,007.86
Payout Ratio13.23%28.58%43.94%59.29%74.65%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)143,038.00329,165.66538,885.59774,478.381,038,421.441,333,404.921,411,557.27

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.03%7.03%7.03%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)304,643.45307,531.07310,418.69
Year 2 PV (M)461,584.50470,376.39479,251.22
Year 3 PV (M)613,961.69631,586.33649,545.07
Year 4 PV (M)761,873.64791,173.15821,309.73
Year 5 PV (M)905,417.08949,149.06994,554.77
PV of Terminal Value (M)23,754,681.8124,902,041.8326,093,314.01
Equity Value (M)26,802,162.1828,051,857.8329,348,393.48
Shares Outstanding (M)261.16261.16261.16
Fair Value$102,626.58$107,411.71$112,376.20
Upside / Downside278.70%296.35%314.67%

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