Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Orion Oyj (ORNAV.HE)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Drug Manufacturers - GeneralSector: Healthcare

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$45.27 - $106.03$66.52
Multi-Stage$61.34 - $67.23$64.23
Blended Fair Value$65.38
Current Price$65.15
Upside0.35%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS1.54%2.61%1.621.601.501.501.501.501.451.551.311.30
YoY Growth--1.38%6.49%0.00%0.05%-0.05%3.58%-6.47%18.74%0.16%4.03%
Dividend Yield--2.96%4.76%3.65%3.65%4.40%4.03%4.26%6.24%2.67%4.49%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)313.20
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)229.60
(=) Cash Retained (M)83.60
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)62.6439.1523.49
Cash Retained (M)83.6083.6083.60
(-) Cash Required (M)-62.64-39.15-23.49
(=) Excess Retained (M)20.9644.4560.11
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)140.56140.56140.56
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.150.320.43
LTM Dividend per Share1.631.631.63
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.150.320.43
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.781.952.06
WACC / Discount Rate6.30%6.30%6.30%
Growth Rate2.27%3.27%4.27%
Fair Value$45.27$66.52$106.03
Upside / Downside-30.51%2.10%62.75%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)313.20323.44334.02344.94356.22367.87378.91
Payout Ratio73.31%76.65%79.98%83.32%86.66%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)229.60247.91267.16287.42308.71331.09350.49

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.30%6.30%6.30%
Growth Rate2.27%3.27%4.27%
Year 1 PV (M)230.96233.22235.48
Year 2 PV (M)231.89236.45241.05
Year 3 PV (M)232.42239.30246.32
Year 4 PV (M)232.57241.80251.31
Year 5 PV (M)232.38243.97256.01
PV of Terminal Value (M)7,461.367,833.358,220.03
Equity Value (M)8,621.599,028.109,450.20
Shares Outstanding (M)140.56140.56140.56
Fair Value$61.34$64.23$67.23
Upside / Downside-5.85%-1.41%3.20%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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