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Definitive Analysis

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Orchard Funding Group plc (ORCH.L)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Financial - Credit ServicesSector: Financial Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$21.71 - $43.27$40.55
Multi-Stage$6.56 - $7.19$6.87
Blended Fair Value$23.71
Current Price$0.30
Upside7,803.83%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2025202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS0.00%0.00%0.000.020.030.030.030.030.030.030.020.01
YoY Growth---100.00%-33.39%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%24.71%71.32%118.20%
Dividend Yield--0.00%6.35%7.23%5.36%5.09%4.23%3.92%3.03%2.51%1.54%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)4.65
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)0.43
(=) Cash Retained (M)4.22
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)0.930.580.35
Cash Retained (M)4.224.224.22
(-) Cash Required (M)-0.93-0.58-0.35
(=) Excess Retained (M)3.293.643.87
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)21.3521.3521.35
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.150.170.18
LTM Dividend per Share0.020.020.02
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.150.170.18
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.170.190.20
WACC / Discount Rate6.35%6.35%6.35%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$21.71$40.55$43.27
Upside / Downside7,137.41%13,417.12%14,323.70%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)4.654.955.275.615.986.376.56
Payout Ratio9.19%25.35%41.51%57.68%73.84%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)0.431.252.193.244.415.736.06

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.35%6.35%6.35%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)1.171.181.19
Year 2 PV (M)1.901.931.97
Year 3 PV (M)2.622.692.77
Year 4 PV (M)3.323.453.58
Year 5 PV (M)4.024.214.41
PV of Terminal Value (M)127.12133.26139.64
Equity Value (M)140.15146.73153.56
Shares Outstanding (M)21.3521.3521.35
Fair Value$6.56$6.87$7.19
Upside / Downside2,087.75%2,190.53%2,297.18%

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