Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Sector

Navigator Holdings Ltd. (NVGS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Oil & Gas MidstreamSector: Energy

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$48.10 - $247.00$86.40
Multi-Stage$35.63 - $39.05$37.31
Blended Fair Value$61.86
Current Price$14.15
Upside337.15%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS0.00%0.00%0.210.110.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth--94.36%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--1.55%0.69%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)103.23
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)13.67
(=) Cash Retained (M)89.57
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)20.6512.907.74
Cash Retained (M)89.5789.5789.57
(-) Cash Required (M)-20.65-12.90-7.74
(=) Excess Retained (M)68.9276.6681.82
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)69.0569.0569.05
(=) Excess Retained per Share1.001.111.18
LTM Dividend per Share0.200.200.20
(+) Excess Retained per Share1.001.111.18
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.201.311.38
WACC / Discount Rate6.99%6.99%6.99%
Growth Rate4.40%5.40%6.40%
Fair Value$48.10$86.40$247.00
Upside / Downside239.93%510.61%1,645.62%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)103.23108.80114.67120.86127.38134.25138.28
Payout Ratio13.24%28.59%43.94%59.29%74.65%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)13.6731.1150.3971.6695.08120.82127.90

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.99%6.99%6.99%
Growth Rate4.40%5.40%6.40%
Year 1 PV (M)28.8029.0729.35
Year 2 PV (M)43.1944.0244.86
Year 3 PV (M)56.8658.5160.19
Year 4 PV (M)69.8572.5675.36
Year 5 PV (M)82.1786.1890.35
PV of Terminal Value (M)2,179.732,286.152,396.68
Equity Value (M)2,460.602,576.502,696.79
Shares Outstanding (M)69.0569.0569.05
Fair Value$35.63$37.31$39.05
Upside / Downside151.83%163.69%176.00%

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