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Definitive Analysis

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Muangthai Capital Public Company Limited (MTC-R.BK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Financial - Credit ServicesSector: Financial Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$497.51 - $586.15$549.31
Multi-Stage$138.95 - $152.38$145.54
Blended Fair Value$347.42
Current Price$35.25
Upside885.60%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-4.18%4.03%0.210.950.370.370.300.260.180.100.200.13
YoY Growth---77.89%156.76%0.00%23.33%15.38%44.44%80.00%-50.00%53.85%-8.13%
Dividend Yield--0.58%2.01%1.07%0.70%0.42%0.74%0.40%0.26%0.64%0.67%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)6,251.92
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)530.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)5,721.92
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)1,250.38781.49468.89
Cash Retained (M)5,721.925,721.925,721.92
(-) Cash Required (M)-1,250.38-781.49-468.89
(=) Excess Retained (M)4,471.544,940.435,253.03
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)2,121.232,121.232,121.23
(=) Excess Retained per Share2.112.332.48
LTM Dividend per Share0.250.250.25
(+) Excess Retained per Share2.112.332.48
(=) Adjusted Dividend2.362.582.73
WACC / Discount Rate5.19%5.19%5.19%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$497.51$549.31$586.15
Upside / Downside1,311.37%1,458.31%1,562.83%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)6,251.926,658.307,091.097,552.018,042.898,565.688,822.65
Payout Ratio8.48%24.78%41.09%57.39%73.70%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)530.001,650.052,913.484,334.175,927.257,709.118,160.95

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate5.19%5.19%5.19%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)1,553.981,568.701,583.43
Year 2 PV (M)2,584.062,633.282,682.97
Year 3 PV (M)3,620.293,724.223,830.11
Year 4 PV (M)4,662.694,842.005,026.44
Year 5 PV (M)5,711.285,987.146,273.56
PV of Terminal Value (M)276,610.24289,970.62303,842.33
Equity Value (M)294,742.55308,725.97323,238.84
Shares Outstanding (M)2,121.232,121.232,121.23
Fair Value$138.95$145.54$152.38
Upside / Downside294.18%312.88%332.29%

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