Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Modi's Navnirman Ltd. (MODIS.BO)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Real Estate - DevelopmentSector: Real Estate

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$98.56 - $139.85$118.92
Multi-Stage$145.42 - $159.87$152.51
Blended Fair Value$135.72
Current Price$335.00
Upside-59.49%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2025202420232022202120202019
DPS0.00%0.00%0.000.900.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth---100.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--0.00%0.36%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)281.49
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)21.25
(=) Cash Retained (M)260.24
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)56.3035.1921.11
Cash Retained (M)260.24260.24260.24
(-) Cash Required (M)-56.30-35.19-21.11
(=) Excess Retained (M)203.94225.05239.13
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)18.8618.8618.86
(=) Excess Retained per Share10.8111.9312.68
LTM Dividend per Share1.131.131.13
(+) Excess Retained per Share10.8111.9312.68
(=) Adjusted Dividend11.9413.0613.80
WACC / Discount Rate9.87%9.87%9.87%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$98.56$118.92$139.85
Upside / Downside-70.58%-64.50%-58.25%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)281.49278.68275.89273.13270.40267.69275.73
Payout Ratio7.55%24.04%40.53%57.02%73.51%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)21.2566.99111.82155.74198.77240.92255.05

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.87%9.87%9.87%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)60.3660.9861.59
Year 2 PV (M)90.7792.6394.51
Year 3 PV (M)113.90117.42121.02
Year 4 PV (M)130.98136.41142.00
Year 5 PV (M)143.03150.48158.24
PV of Terminal Value (M)2,204.092,318.862,438.36
Equity Value (M)2,743.132,876.783,015.72
Shares Outstanding (M)18.8618.8618.86
Fair Value$145.42$152.51$159.87
Upside / Downside-56.59%-54.48%-52.28%

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