Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Company Industry Sector

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Sector

PT Mulia Industrindo Tbk (MLIA.JK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: ConstructionSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$225.87 - $345.59$281.82
Multi-Stage$480.42 - $529.09$504.28
Blended Fair Value$393.05
Current Price$290.00
Upside35.53%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS0.00%0.00%14.9525.920.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth---42.31%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--5.09%6.48%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)166,529.10
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)46,159.81
(=) Cash Retained (M)120,369.29
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)33,305.8220,816.1412,489.68
Cash Retained (M)120,369.29120,369.29120,369.29
(-) Cash Required (M)-33,305.82-20,816.14-12,489.68
(=) Excess Retained (M)87,063.4799,553.15107,879.60
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)6,615.006,615.006,615.00
(=) Excess Retained per Share13.1615.0516.31
LTM Dividend per Share6.986.986.98
(+) Excess Retained per Share13.1615.0516.31
(=) Adjusted Dividend20.1422.0323.29
WACC / Discount Rate6.74%6.74%6.74%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$225.87$281.82$345.59
Upside / Downside-22.11%-2.82%19.17%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)166,529.10164,863.81163,215.17161,583.02159,967.19158,367.51163,118.54
Payout Ratio27.72%40.18%52.63%65.09%77.54%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)46,159.8166,234.0585,902.20105,170.36124,044.56142,530.76150,884.65

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.74%6.74%6.74%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)61,426.1062,052.8962,679.69
Year 2 PV (M)73,883.4975,399.0176,929.92
Year 3 PV (M)83,889.5986,483.9389,131.22
Year 4 PV (M)91,762.2495,565.3699,485.49
Year 5 PV (M)97,783.70102,875.53108,177.29
PV of Terminal Value (M)2,769,214.992,913,414.443,063,559.33
Equity Value (M)3,177,960.123,335,791.173,499,962.94
Shares Outstanding (M)6,615.006,615.006,615.00
Fair Value$480.42$504.28$529.09
Upside / Downside65.66%73.89%82.45%

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