Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Company Industry Sector

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Sector

Multi Hanna Kreasindo Tbk. (MHKI.JK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Waste ManagementSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$91.41 - $140.21$114.17
Multi-Stage$197.12 - $217.09$206.91
Blended Fair Value$160.54
Current Price$180.00
Upside-10.81%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR20242023202220212020
DPS0.00%0.00%0.790.005.510.000.000.000.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth--0.00%-100.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--0.86%0.00%2.55%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)36,784.98
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)10,932.15
(=) Cash Retained (M)25,852.82
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)7,357.004,598.122,758.87
Cash Retained (M)25,852.8225,852.8225,852.82
(-) Cash Required (M)-7,357.00-4,598.12-2,758.87
(=) Excess Retained (M)18,495.8321,254.7023,093.95
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)3,641.103,641.103,641.10
(=) Excess Retained per Share5.085.846.34
LTM Dividend per Share3.003.003.00
(+) Excess Retained per Share5.085.846.34
(=) Adjusted Dividend8.088.849.35
WACC / Discount Rate6.67%6.67%6.67%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$91.41$114.17$140.21
Upside / Downside-49.22%-36.57%-22.11%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)36,784.9836,417.1336,052.9635,692.4335,335.5034,982.1536,031.61
Payout Ratio29.72%41.78%53.83%65.89%77.94%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)10,932.1515,213.3519,407.8323,516.8927,541.8431,483.9333,329.24

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.67%6.67%6.67%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)14,118.6514,262.7114,406.78
Year 2 PV (M)16,715.2717,058.1417,404.49
Year 3 PV (M)18,796.8319,378.1419,971.30
Year 4 PV (M)20,429.8821,276.6022,149.38
Year 5 PV (M)21,673.5522,802.1423,977.27
PV of Terminal Value (M)625,996.03658,593.09692,534.16
Equity Value (M)717,730.20753,370.83790,443.37
Shares Outstanding (M)3,641.103,641.103,641.10
Fair Value$197.12$206.91$217.09
Upside / Downside9.51%14.95%20.61%

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