Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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PT Mahkota Group Tbk (MGRO.JK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Packaged FoodsSector: Consumer Defensive

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$61.29 - $101.70$79.15
Multi-Stage$202.94 - $224.11$213.32
Blended Fair Value$146.23
Current Price$790.00
Upside-81.49%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-19.70%0.00%2.000.007.010.001.006.000.007.110.000.00
YoY Growth--0.00%-100.00%0.00%-100.00%-83.30%0.00%-100.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--0.29%0.00%0.95%0.00%0.14%0.95%0.00%2.10%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)19,034.73
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)1,499.73
(=) Cash Retained (M)17,535.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)3,806.952,379.341,427.60
Cash Retained (M)17,535.0017,535.0017,535.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-3,806.95-2,379.34-1,427.60
(=) Excess Retained (M)13,728.0515,155.6616,107.40
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)3,518.463,518.463,518.46
(=) Excess Retained per Share3.904.314.58
LTM Dividend per Share0.430.430.43
(+) Excess Retained per Share3.904.314.58
(=) Adjusted Dividend4.334.735.00
WACC / Discount Rate4.92%4.92%4.92%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$61.29$79.15$101.70
Upside / Downside-92.24%-89.98%-87.13%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)19,034.7318,844.3918,655.9418,469.3818,284.6918,101.8418,644.90
Payout Ratio7.88%24.30%40.73%57.15%73.58%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)1,499.734,579.787,598.0710,555.5413,453.1016,291.6617,246.53

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate4.92%4.92%4.92%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)4,320.904,364.994,409.08
Year 2 PV (M)6,763.376,902.107,042.24
Year 3 PV (M)8,864.829,138.979,418.71
Year 4 PV (M)10,659.6111,101.4111,556.79
Year 5 PV (M)12,179.0712,813.2613,473.60
PV of Terminal Value (M)671,264.63706,218.94742,614.44
Equity Value (M)714,052.40750,539.66788,514.86
Shares Outstanding (M)3,518.463,518.463,518.46
Fair Value$202.94$213.32$224.11
Upside / Downside-74.31%-73.00%-71.63%

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