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Definitive Analysis

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Malee Group Public Company Limited (MALEE.BK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Packaged FoodsSector: Consumer Defensive

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$12.52 - $71.18$23.62
Multi-Stage$10.42 - $11.42$10.91
Blended Fair Value$17.27
Current Price$5.70
Upside202.91%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS0.00%0.00%0.000.000.020.000.000.000.130.450.370.28
YoY Growth--0.00%-100.00%957.37%0.00%-100.00%-100.00%-71.58%19.59%30.94%6.57%
Dividend Yield--0.00%0.00%0.29%0.03%0.00%0.00%1.63%2.05%0.76%1.65%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)197.85
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)54.56
(=) Cash Retained (M)143.30
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)39.5724.7314.84
Cash Retained (M)143.30143.30143.30
(-) Cash Required (M)-39.57-24.73-14.84
(=) Excess Retained (M)103.72118.56128.46
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)544.53544.53544.53
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.190.220.24
LTM Dividend per Share0.100.100.10
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.190.220.24
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.290.320.34
WACC / Discount Rate6.31%6.31%6.31%
Growth Rate3.90%4.90%5.90%
Fair Value$12.52$23.62$71.18
Upside / Downside119.67%314.37%1,148.84%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)197.85207.55217.71228.37239.56251.29258.83
Payout Ratio27.58%40.06%52.55%65.03%77.52%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)54.5683.14114.40148.51185.69226.16239.42

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.31%6.31%6.31%
Growth Rate3.90%4.90%5.90%
Year 1 PV (M)77.4678.2178.95
Year 2 PV (M)99.30101.22103.16
Year 3 PV (M)120.10123.61127.18
Year 4 PV (M)139.92145.38151.00
Year 5 PV (M)158.76166.55174.65
PV of Terminal Value (M)5,077.895,327.015,585.81
Equity Value (M)5,673.445,941.986,220.75
Shares Outstanding (M)544.53544.53544.53
Fair Value$10.42$10.91$11.42
Upside / Downside82.79%91.44%100.42%

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