Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Sector

Lottomatica Group S.p.A. (LTMC.MI)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Gambling, Resorts & CasinosSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$4.67 - $7.01$5.78
Multi-Stage$9.34 - $10.26$9.79
Blended Fair Value$7.78
Current Price$22.92
Upside-66.05%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR20242023202220212020
DPS0.00%0.00%0.270.010.081.000.030.000.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth--3,287.83%-89.76%-92.26%2,792.52%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--1.44%0.07%0.94%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)139.42
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)77.90
(=) Cash Retained (M)61.52
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)27.8817.4310.46
Cash Retained (M)61.5261.5261.52
(-) Cash Required (M)-27.88-17.43-10.46
(=) Excess Retained (M)33.6344.0951.06
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)250.52250.52250.52
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.130.180.20
LTM Dividend per Share0.310.310.31
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.130.180.20
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.450.490.51
WACC / Discount Rate7.35%7.35%7.35%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$4.67$5.78$7.01
Upside / Downside-79.63%-74.80%-69.43%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)139.42138.03136.65135.28133.93132.59136.57
Payout Ratio55.88%62.70%69.53%76.35%83.18%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)77.9086.5495.01103.29111.40119.33126.32

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.35%7.35%7.35%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)79.8180.6281.44
Year 2 PV (M)80.7982.4484.12
Year 3 PV (M)80.9983.5086.05
Year 4 PV (M)80.5583.8987.33
Year 5 PV (M)79.5783.7188.03
PV of Terminal Value (M)1,937.502,038.392,143.44
Equity Value (M)2,339.212,452.562,570.41
Shares Outstanding (M)250.52250.52250.52
Fair Value$9.34$9.79$10.26
Upside / Downside-59.26%-57.29%-55.24%

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