Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Leonardo S.p.A. (LDO.MI)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Aerospace & DefenseSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$117.47 - $492.07$296.49
Multi-Stage$58.60 - $64.09$61.29
Blended Fair Value$178.89
Current Price$47.78
Upside274.41%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS17.21%25.00%0.310.140.140.000.140.140.140.140.010.00
YoY Growth--118.52%2.53%0.00%-100.00%0.00%-1.23%0.00%1,925.00%0.00%-100.00%
Dividend Yield--1.19%0.94%1.70%0.00%2.35%1.33%1.83%1.40%0.05%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)1,425.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)482.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)943.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)285.00178.13106.88
Cash Retained (M)943.00943.00943.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-285.00-178.13-106.88
(=) Excess Retained (M)658.00764.88836.13
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)575.92575.92575.92
(=) Excess Retained per Share1.141.331.45
LTM Dividend per Share0.840.840.84
(+) Excess Retained per Share1.141.331.45
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.982.172.29
WACC / Discount Rate7.28%7.28%7.28%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$117.47$296.49$492.07
Upside / Downside145.86%520.53%929.87%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)1,425.001,517.631,616.271,721.331,833.211,952.372,010.94
Payout Ratio33.82%45.06%56.29%67.53%78.76%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)482.00683.84909.881,162.411,443.931,757.141,860.12

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.28%7.28%7.28%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)631.46637.45643.43
Year 2 PV (M)775.83790.61805.53
Year 3 PV (M)915.25941.52968.30
Year 4 PV (M)1,049.831,090.211,131.73
Year 5 PV (M)1,179.701,236.681,295.84
PV of Terminal Value (M)29,194.4930,604.6032,068.67
Equity Value (M)33,746.5735,301.0736,913.50
Shares Outstanding (M)575.92575.92575.92
Fair Value$58.60$61.29$64.09
Upside / Downside22.64%28.29%34.14%

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