Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Company Industry Sector

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Margins Returns Growth Rates Metrics/Ratios

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Company Industry Sector

Ticker

Industry

Sector

Kindred Group plc (KIND-SDB.ST)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Gambling, Resorts & CasinosSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$4.21 - $7.43$5.58
Multi-Stage$4.13 - $4.51$4.32
Blended Fair Value$4.95
Current Price$9.47
Upside-47.76%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2023202220212020201920182017201620152014
DPS-10.04%14.21%0.340.340.340.000.520.580.330.250.220.14
YoY Growth--1.09%-1.74%0.00%-100.00%-10.43%77.90%30.74%15.63%50.16%58.67%
Dividend Yield--3.72%3.74%4.11%0.00%17.23%7.36%3.34%3.03%2.73%3.12%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)66.40
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)36.80
(=) Cash Retained (M)29.60
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)13.288.304.98
Cash Retained (M)29.6029.6029.60
(-) Cash Required (M)-13.28-8.30-4.98
(=) Excess Retained (M)16.3221.3024.62
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)216.98216.98216.98
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.080.100.11
LTM Dividend per Share0.170.170.17
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.080.100.11
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.240.270.28
WACC / Discount Rate9.97%9.97%9.97%
Growth Rate3.93%4.93%5.93%
Fair Value$4.21$5.58$7.43
Upside / Downside-55.50%-41.11%-21.58%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)66.4069.6773.1176.7180.4984.4686.99
Payout Ratio55.42%62.34%69.25%76.17%83.08%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)36.8043.4350.6358.4366.8876.0180.47

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.97%9.97%9.97%
Growth Rate3.93%4.93%5.93%
Year 1 PV (M)39.1239.5039.87
Year 2 PV (M)41.0741.8742.67
Year 3 PV (M)42.6943.9445.21
Year 4 PV (M)44.0145.7347.50
Year 5 PV (M)45.0647.2749.57
PV of Terminal Value (M)684.70718.29753.17
Equity Value (M)896.66936.59977.99
Shares Outstanding (M)216.98216.98216.98
Fair Value$4.13$4.32$4.51
Upside / Downside-56.36%-54.42%-52.40%

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