Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Sector

Konecranes Plc (KCR.HE)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Agricultural - MachinerySector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$131.35 - $442.21$214.88
Multi-Stage$118.13 - $129.43$123.68
Blended Fair Value$169.28
Current Price$67.35
Upside151.34%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS2.47%5.81%1.351.251.250.881.201.191.191.040.780.78
YoY Growth--7.98%0.10%42.10%-26.74%0.42%0.00%14.95%33.39%0.33%1.15%
Dividend Yield--2.29%2.61%4.04%3.14%3.15%7.64%3.59%2.94%2.34%3.70%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)386.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)130.70
(=) Cash Retained (M)255.30
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)77.2048.2528.95
Cash Retained (M)255.30255.30255.30
(-) Cash Required (M)-77.20-48.25-28.95
(=) Excess Retained (M)178.10207.05226.35
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)79.3179.3179.31
(=) Excess Retained per Share2.252.612.85
LTM Dividend per Share1.651.651.65
(+) Excess Retained per Share2.252.612.85
(=) Adjusted Dividend3.894.264.50
WACC / Discount Rate6.88%6.88%6.88%
Growth Rate3.81%4.81%5.81%
Fair Value$131.35$214.88$442.21
Upside / Downside95.03%219.04%556.58%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)386.00404.55423.99444.36465.72488.09502.74
Payout Ratio33.86%45.09%56.32%67.54%78.77%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)130.70182.40238.77300.14366.85439.28465.03

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.88%6.88%6.88%
Growth Rate3.81%4.81%5.81%
Year 1 PV (M)169.03170.66172.29
Year 2 PV (M)205.04209.01213.02
Year 3 PV (M)238.84245.81252.92
Year 4 PV (M)270.53281.10291.99
Year 5 PV (M)300.19314.93330.24
PV of Terminal Value (M)8,184.998,586.919,004.46
Equity Value (M)9,368.629,808.4210,264.91
Shares Outstanding (M)79.3179.3179.31
Fair Value$118.13$123.68$129.43
Upside / Downside75.40%83.63%92.18%

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