Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Industry

Sector

Isramco Negev 2 Limited Partnership (ISRA.TA)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Oil & Gas Exploration & ProductionSector: Energy

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$0.28 - $0.39$0.33
Multi-Stage$0.62 - $0.68$0.65
Blended Fair Value$0.49
Current Price$0.74
Upside-33.62%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-16.35%0.00%0.040.030.000.040.050.100.090.220.020.05
YoY Growth--27.15%0.00%-100.00%-9.52%-54.83%9.90%-57.71%863.40%-55.57%0.00%
Dividend Yield--7.73%6.83%0.00%14.92%22.38%55.34%17.53%37.84%2.63%6.05%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)113.14
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)110.15
(=) Cash Retained (M)2.99
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)22.6314.148.49
Cash Retained (M)2.992.992.99
(-) Cash Required (M)-22.63-14.14-8.49
(=) Excess Retained (M)-19.64-11.15-5.49
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)2,612.982,612.982,612.98
(=) Excess Retained per Share-0.010.000.00
LTM Dividend per Share0.040.040.04
(+) Excess Retained per Share-0.010.000.00
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.030.040.04
WACC / Discount Rate7.80%7.80%7.80%
Growth Rate-4.16%-3.16%-2.16%
Fair Value$0.28$0.33$0.39
Upside / Downside-62.63%-54.93%-47.03%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)113.14109.56106.10102.7499.4996.3599.24
Payout Ratio97.36%95.88%94.41%92.94%91.47%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)110.15105.05100.1795.4991.0186.7191.79

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.80%7.80%7.80%
Growth Rate-4.16%-3.16%-2.16%
Year 1 PV (M)96.4597.4598.46
Year 2 PV (M)84.4386.2187.99
Year 3 PV (M)73.9076.2478.62
Year 4 PV (M)64.6667.4070.23
Year 5 PV (M)56.5659.5862.72
PV of Terminal Value (M)1,248.761,315.281,384.61
Equity Value (M)1,624.761,702.161,782.64
Shares Outstanding (M)2,612.982,612.982,612.98
Fair Value$0.62$0.65$0.68
Upside / Downside-16.30%-12.32%-8.17%

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