Definitive Analysis
Definitive Analysis

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PT Indonesia Pondasi Raya Tbk (IDPR.JK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Engineering & ConstructionSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$105.47 - $156.86$129.97
Multi-Stage$270.06 - $297.20$283.36
Blended Fair Value$206.66
Current Price$192.00
Upside7.64%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-12.94%0.00%5.001.001.005.000.0010.0015.0010.005.0037.03
YoY Growth--400.00%0.00%-80.00%0.00%-100.00%-33.33%50.00%100.00%-86.50%0.00%
Dividend Yield--2.89%0.67%0.60%2.87%0.00%3.85%3.42%1.18%0.32%2.60%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)26,434.55
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)20,030.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)6,404.55
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)5,286.913,304.321,982.59
Cash Retained (M)6,404.556,404.556,404.55
(-) Cash Required (M)-5,286.91-3,304.32-1,982.59
(=) Excess Retained (M)1,117.643,100.234,421.96
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)2,003.002,003.002,003.00
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.561.552.21
LTM Dividend per Share10.0010.0010.00
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.561.552.21
(=) Adjusted Dividend10.5611.5512.21
WACC / Discount Rate6.42%6.42%6.42%
Growth Rate-3.26%-2.26%-1.26%
Fair Value$105.47$129.97$156.86
Upside / Downside-45.07%-32.31%-18.30%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)26,434.5525,836.1325,251.2724,679.6424,120.9523,574.9224,282.16
Payout Ratio75.77%78.62%81.46%84.31%87.15%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)20,030.0020,311.7620,570.5020,807.1121,022.4821,217.4222,461.00

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.42%6.42%6.42%
Growth Rate-3.26%-2.26%-1.26%
Year 1 PV (M)18,891.0919,086.3819,281.66
Year 2 PV (M)17,793.6018,163.3818,536.97
Year 3 PV (M)16,739.4217,263.9317,799.29
Year 4 PV (M)15,729.7616,390.3317,071.49
Year 5 PV (M)14,765.2315,544.3416,356.00
PV of Terminal Value (M)457,010.22481,125.12506,247.41
Equity Value (M)540,929.32567,573.48595,292.82
Shares Outstanding (M)2,003.002,003.002,003.00
Fair Value$270.06$283.36$297.20
Upside / Downside40.66%47.58%54.79%

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