Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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I.C.C. International Public Company Limited (ICC.BK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Apparel - RetailSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$12.83 - $18.64$15.65
Multi-Stage$26.03 - $28.66$27.32
Blended Fair Value$21.48
Current Price$25.25
Upside-14.91%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-1.11%-0.47%0.750.660.230.160.460.800.720.760.690.69
YoY Growth--14.41%185.71%40.00%-64.29%-42.13%10.01%-4.37%9.53%-0.03%-12.47%
Dividend Yield--3.44%2.43%1.14%0.95%2.42%4.09%3.11%3.23%3.13%3.09%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)779.78
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)230.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)549.78
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)155.9697.4758.48
Cash Retained (M)549.78549.78549.78
(-) Cash Required (M)-155.96-97.47-58.48
(=) Excess Retained (M)393.82452.30491.29
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)441.77441.77441.77
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.891.021.11
LTM Dividend per Share0.520.520.52
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.891.021.11
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.411.541.63
WACC / Discount Rate7.56%7.56%7.56%
Growth Rate-3.11%-2.11%-1.11%
Fair Value$12.83$15.65$18.64
Upside / Downside-49.18%-38.03%-26.17%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)779.78763.35747.28731.54716.13701.05722.08
Payout Ratio29.50%41.60%53.70%65.80%77.90%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)230.00317.53401.27481.34557.86630.94667.93

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.56%7.56%7.56%
Growth Rate-3.11%-2.11%-1.11%
Year 1 PV (M)292.21295.22298.24
Year 2 PV (M)339.82346.87353.99
Year 3 PV (M)375.12386.86398.83
Year 4 PV (M)400.08416.86434.15
Year 5 PV (M)416.41438.35461.20
PV of Terminal Value (M)9,675.7210,185.4310,716.40
Equity Value (M)11,499.3712,069.5912,662.81
Shares Outstanding (M)441.77441.77441.77
Fair Value$26.03$27.32$28.66
Upside / Downside3.09%8.20%13.52%

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