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Definitive Analysis

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Hufvudstaden AB (publ) (HUFV-A.ST)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Real Estate - DiversifiedSector: Real Estate

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$48.80 - $74.70$60.90
Multi-Stage$116.55 - $128.33$122.32
Blended Fair Value$91.61
Current Price$126.80
Upside-27.75%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-6.47%-0.38%2.702.702.602.503.983.783.573.373.162.96
YoY Growth--0.00%3.84%3.99%-37.12%5.40%5.72%6.05%6.46%6.89%5.47%
Dividend Yield--2.39%2.12%1.85%1.87%3.14%2.78%2.22%2.72%2.38%2.30%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)1,102.20
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)566.50
(=) Cash Retained (M)535.70
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)220.44137.7882.67
Cash Retained (M)535.70535.70535.70
(-) Cash Required (M)-220.44-137.78-82.67
(=) Excess Retained (M)315.26397.93453.04
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)202.03202.03202.03
(=) Excess Retained per Share1.561.972.24
LTM Dividend per Share2.802.802.80
(+) Excess Retained per Share1.561.972.24
(=) Adjusted Dividend4.364.775.05
WACC / Discount Rate6.35%6.35%6.35%
Growth Rate-2.38%-1.38%-0.38%
Fair Value$48.80$60.90$74.70
Upside / Downside-61.51%-51.97%-41.09%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)1,102.201,087.031,072.061,057.311,042.751,028.401,059.25
Payout Ratio51.40%59.12%66.84%74.56%82.28%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)566.50642.63716.55788.32857.97925.56979.81

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.35%6.35%6.35%
Growth Rate-2.38%-1.38%-0.38%
Year 1 PV (M)598.11604.23610.36
Year 2 PV (M)620.71633.49646.40
Year 3 PV (M)635.57655.30675.43
Year 4 PV (M)643.80670.59698.21
Year 5 PV (M)646.41680.20715.39
PV of Terminal Value (M)20,402.4321,469.0222,579.75
Equity Value (M)23,547.0224,712.8225,925.54
Shares Outstanding (M)202.03202.03202.03
Fair Value$116.55$122.32$128.33
Upside / Downside-8.08%-3.53%1.20%

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