Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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PT Equity Development Investment Tbk (GSMF.JK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Insurance - DiversifiedSector: Financial Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$17.68 - $24.90$21.26
Multi-Stage$27.80 - $30.53$29.14
Blended Fair Value$25.20
Current Price$97.00
Upside-74.02%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS1.85%3.45%0.290.240.260.420.280.260.250.250.270.33
YoY Growth--21.21%-8.33%-38.21%49.40%6.85%5.80%0.00%-8.88%-18.29%62.59%
Dividend Yield--0.54%0.48%0.46%0.42%0.23%0.23%0.22%0.19%0.24%0.33%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)39,826.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)9,251.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)30,575.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)7,965.204,978.252,986.95
Cash Retained (M)30,575.0030,575.0030,575.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-7,965.20-4,978.25-2,986.95
(=) Excess Retained (M)22,609.8025,596.7527,588.05
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)14,230.4014,230.4014,230.40
(=) Excess Retained per Share1.591.801.94
LTM Dividend per Share0.650.650.65
(+) Excess Retained per Share1.591.801.94
(=) Adjusted Dividend2.242.452.59
WACC / Discount Rate9.73%9.73%9.73%
Growth Rate-2.60%-1.60%-0.60%
Fair Value$17.68$21.26$24.90
Upside / Downside-81.77%-78.08%-74.33%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)39,826.0039,187.4538,559.1337,940.8937,332.5736,733.9937,836.01
Payout Ratio23.23%36.58%49.94%63.29%76.65%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)9,251.0014,335.8819,255.3224,013.3328,613.8133,060.5934,998.31

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.73%9.73%9.73%
Growth Rate-2.60%-1.60%-0.60%
Year 1 PV (M)12,931.9213,064.7013,197.47
Year 2 PV (M)15,668.5315,991.9316,318.63
Year 3 PV (M)17,626.6018,175.1218,734.91
Year 4 PV (M)18,946.5719,736.7520,551.40
Year 5 PV (M)19,747.1420,781.9221,859.63
PV of Terminal Value (M)310,621.61326,898.66343,851.02
Equity Value (M)395,542.36414,649.07434,513.06
Shares Outstanding (M)14,230.4014,230.4014,230.40
Fair Value$27.80$29.14$30.53
Upside / Downside-71.34%-69.96%-68.52%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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