Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Garmin Ltd. (GRMN)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Hardware, Equipment & PartsSector: Technology

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$582.79 - $1,613.69$1,512.26
Multi-Stage$226.47 - $247.81$236.95
Blended Fair Value$874.61
Current Price$240.48
Upside263.69%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS6.52%4.74%2.962.893.512.542.332.161.531.982.491.95
YoY Growth--2.43%-17.72%38.18%9.06%8.00%40.90%-22.67%-20.45%27.33%5.01%
Dividend Yield--1.38%1.94%3.48%2.18%1.81%2.93%1.77%3.36%4.87%5.01%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)1,570.94
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)634.90
(=) Cash Retained (M)936.04
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)314.19196.37117.82
Cash Retained (M)936.04936.04936.04
(-) Cash Required (M)-314.19-196.37-117.82
(=) Excess Retained (M)621.85739.67818.22
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)193.61193.61193.61
(=) Excess Retained per Share3.213.824.23
LTM Dividend per Share3.283.283.28
(+) Excess Retained per Share3.213.824.23
(=) Adjusted Dividend6.497.107.51
WACC / Discount Rate6.68%6.68%6.68%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$582.79$1,512.26$1,613.69
Upside / Downside142.34%528.85%571.03%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)1,570.941,673.051,781.801,897.622,020.962,152.322,216.89
Payout Ratio40.42%50.33%60.25%70.17%80.08%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)634.90842.081,073.521,331.481,618.451,937.092,050.63

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.68%6.68%6.68%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)781.98789.39796.80
Year 2 PV (M)925.74943.37961.17
Year 3 PV (M)1,066.241,096.851,128.04
Year 4 PV (M)1,203.531,249.821,297.42
Year 5 PV (M)1,337.671,402.281,469.36
PV of Terminal Value (M)38,531.5940,392.6842,325.00
Equity Value (M)43,846.7645,874.4047,977.80
Shares Outstanding (M)193.61193.61193.61
Fair Value$226.47$236.95$247.81
Upside / Downside-5.82%-1.47%3.05%

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