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Definitive Analysis

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Grupo Financiero Banorte, S.A.B. de C.V. (GFNORTEO.MX)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Banks - RegionalSector: Financial Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$1,061.85 - $3,839.35$3,366.04
Multi-Stage$480.17 - $525.70$502.52
Blended Fair Value$1,934.28
Current Price$172.19
Upside1,023.34%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS17.63%40.28%12.2212.8211.655.700.005.423.254.982.460.95
YoY Growth---4.68%9.98%104.56%0.00%-100.00%66.83%-34.70%102.59%159.38%128.82%
Dividend Yield--8.60%7.30%7.68%3.81%0.00%8.34%3.06%4.51%2.28%0.97%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)56,788.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)9,962.80
(=) Cash Retained (M)46,825.20
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)11,357.607,098.504,259.10
Cash Retained (M)46,825.2046,825.2046,825.20
(-) Cash Required (M)-11,357.60-7,098.50-4,259.10
(=) Excess Retained (M)35,467.6039,726.7042,566.10
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)2,941.572,941.572,941.57
(=) Excess Retained per Share12.0613.5114.47
LTM Dividend per Share3.393.393.39
(+) Excess Retained per Share12.0613.5114.47
(=) Adjusted Dividend15.4416.8917.86
WACC / Discount Rate7.03%7.03%7.03%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$1,061.85$3,366.04$3,839.35
Upside / Downside516.67%1,854.84%2,129.72%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)56,788.0060,479.2264,410.3768,597.0473,055.8577,804.4880,138.62
Payout Ratio17.54%32.04%46.53%61.02%75.51%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)9,962.8019,374.5729,967.7741,856.2355,163.5870,024.0374,128.22

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.03%7.03%7.03%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)17,931.2818,101.2418,271.21
Year 2 PV (M)25,669.2326,158.1626,651.70
Year 3 PV (M)33,181.6334,134.1635,104.74
Year 4 PV (M)40,473.3642,029.8643,630.81
Year 5 PV (M)47,549.2049,845.8552,230.39
PV of Terminal Value (M)1,247,653.931,307,916.081,370,484.61
Equity Value (M)1,412,458.651,478,185.351,546,373.46
Shares Outstanding (M)2,941.572,941.572,941.57
Fair Value$480.17$502.52$525.70
Upside / Downside178.86%191.84%205.30%

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