Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Gold Fields Limited (GFI.JO)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: GoldSector: Basic Materials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$102.60 - $559.08$199.60
Multi-Stage$58.87 - $64.36$61.56
Blended Fair Value$130.58
Current Price$23.28
Upside460.91%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS50.46%27.97%0.390.410.340.360.150.050.050.070.040.02
YoY Growth---4.80%21.09%-5.55%134.06%202.64%0.00%-27.55%60.20%159.60%-49.33%
Dividend Yield--3.01%2.82%3.29%3.30%1.65%0.75%1.49%1.62%1.39%0.62%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)2,517.20
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)897.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)1,620.20
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)503.44314.65188.79
Cash Retained (M)1,620.201,620.201,620.20
(-) Cash Required (M)-503.44-314.65-188.79
(=) Excess Retained (M)1,116.761,305.551,431.41
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)895.41895.41895.41
(=) Excess Retained per Share1.251.461.60
LTM Dividend per Share1.001.001.00
(+) Excess Retained per Share1.251.461.60
(=) Adjusted Dividend2.252.462.60
WACC / Discount Rate7.81%7.81%7.81%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$102.60$199.60$559.08
Upside / Downside340.73%757.38%2,301.56%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)2,517.202,680.822,855.073,040.653,238.293,448.783,552.25
Payout Ratio35.63%46.51%57.38%68.25%79.13%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)897.001,246.791,638.272,075.362,562.363,103.903,285.83

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.81%7.81%7.81%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)1,145.591,156.441,167.30
Year 2 PV (M)1,383.091,409.441,436.03
Year 3 PV (M)1,609.891,656.101,703.19
Year 4 PV (M)1,826.321,896.551,968.79
Year 5 PV (M)2,032.722,130.902,232.84
PV of Terminal Value (M)44,714.0446,873.7449,116.10
Equity Value (M)52,711.6455,123.1757,624.26
Shares Outstanding (M)895.41895.41895.41
Fair Value$58.87$61.56$64.36
Upside / Downside152.87%164.44%176.44%

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