Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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PJSC Cherkizovo Group (GCHE.ME)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Packaged FoodsSector: Consumer Defensive

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$9,321.75 - $17,822.71$12,736.31
Multi-Stage$6,892.57 - $7,534.09$7,207.51
Blended Fair Value$9,971.91
Current Price$3,455.00
Upside188.62%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS4.98%0.00%118.42148.05213.16106.65146.2792.8981.8023.6680.3635.85
YoY Growth---20.01%-30.54%99.87%-27.09%57.47%13.55%245.82%-70.56%124.13%0.00%
Dividend Yield--2.78%3.61%7.87%3.25%5.94%4.92%4.20%1.81%9.48%3.86%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)24,301.57
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)0.02
(=) Cash Retained (M)24,301.55
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)4,860.313,037.701,822.62
Cash Retained (M)24,301.5524,301.5524,301.55
(-) Cash Required (M)-4,860.31-3,037.70-1,822.62
(=) Excess Retained (M)19,441.2321,263.8522,478.93
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)42.2242.2242.22
(=) Excess Retained per Share460.45503.62532.40
LTM Dividend per Share0.000.000.00
(+) Excess Retained per Share460.45503.62532.40
(=) Adjusted Dividend460.45503.62532.40
WACC / Discount Rate10.71%10.71%10.71%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$9,321.75$12,736.31$17,822.71
Upside / Downside169.80%268.63%415.85%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)24,301.5725,881.1727,563.4529,355.0731,263.1533,295.2634,294.11
Payout Ratio0.00%18.00%36.00%54.00%72.00%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)0.024,658.639,922.8615,851.7522,509.4729,965.7331,722.05

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate10.71%10.71%10.71%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)4,168.404,207.914,247.42
Year 2 PV (M)7,944.368,095.688,248.43
Year 3 PV (M)11,355.6211,681.6012,013.75
Year 4 PV (M)14,428.1314,983.0015,553.71
Year 5 PV (M)17,186.2318,016.3418,878.21
PV of Terminal Value (M)235,935.60247,331.37259,163.29
Equity Value (M)291,018.34304,315.89318,104.82
Shares Outstanding (M)42.2242.2242.22
Fair Value$6,892.57$7,207.51$7,534.09
Upside / Downside99.50%108.61%118.06%

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