Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Company Industry Sector

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Sector

China Aviation Oil (Singapore) Corporation Ltd (G92.SI)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Oil & Gas Refining & MarketingSector: Energy

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$0.83 - $1.24$1.02
Multi-Stage$1.98 - $2.18$2.08
Blended Fair Value$1.55
Current Price$0.72
Upside116.43%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS2.33%8.83%0.040.010.010.020.030.030.030.030.020.01
YoY Growth--209.74%-13.01%-29.29%-41.87%1.32%-2.39%5.31%43.77%50.81%-6.78%
Dividend Yield--5.77%1.74%1.87%2.80%4.18%3.51%3.32%2.70%2.05%2.55%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)85.99
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)25.97
(=) Cash Retained (M)60.02
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)17.2010.756.45
Cash Retained (M)60.0260.0260.02
(-) Cash Required (M)-17.20-10.75-6.45
(=) Excess Retained (M)42.8249.2753.57
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)859.96859.96859.96
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.050.060.06
LTM Dividend per Share0.030.030.03
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.050.060.06
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.080.090.09
WACC / Discount Rate6.46%6.46%6.46%
Growth Rate-2.94%-1.94%-0.94%
Fair Value$0.83$1.02$1.24
Upside / Downside15.39%42.67%72.94%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)85.9984.3182.6881.0779.4977.9580.29
Payout Ratio30.20%42.16%54.12%66.08%78.04%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)25.9735.5544.7553.5762.0470.1574.27

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.46%6.46%6.46%
Growth Rate-2.94%-1.94%-0.94%
Year 1 PV (M)33.0533.3933.73
Year 2 PV (M)38.6839.4840.29
Year 3 PV (M)43.0544.4045.77
Year 4 PV (M)46.3548.2950.29
Year 5 PV (M)48.7351.2953.96
PV of Terminal Value (M)1,489.921,568.281,649.89
Equity Value (M)1,699.781,785.131,873.93
Shares Outstanding (M)859.96859.96859.96
Fair Value$1.98$2.08$2.18
Upside / Downside176.31%190.18%204.62%

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