Definitive Analysis
Definitive Analysis

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Eagle Materials Inc. (EXP)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Construction MaterialsSector: Basic Materials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$264.11 - $581.28$379.87
Multi-Stage$187.72 - $205.20$196.30
Blended Fair Value$288.08
Current Price$233.04
Upside23.62%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2025202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS14.49%5.33%1.021.061.130.930.130.520.570.590.580.60
YoY Growth---4.46%-5.86%21.86%639.13%-75.71%-9.43%-2.63%0.50%-3.39%-0.26%
Dividend Yield--0.50%0.50%0.61%0.84%0.09%0.74%0.65%0.56%0.63%0.78%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)446.80
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)33.35
(=) Cash Retained (M)413.45
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)89.3655.8533.51
Cash Retained (M)413.45413.45413.45
(-) Cash Required (M)-89.36-55.85-33.51
(=) Excess Retained (M)324.09357.60379.94
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)33.1833.1833.18
(=) Excess Retained per Share9.7710.7811.45
LTM Dividend per Share1.011.011.01
(+) Excess Retained per Share9.7710.7811.45
(=) Adjusted Dividend10.7711.7812.46
WACC / Discount Rate9.80%9.80%9.80%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$264.11$379.87$581.28
Upside / Downside13.33%63.00%149.43%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)446.80475.84506.77539.71574.79612.15630.52
Payout Ratio7.46%23.97%40.48%56.99%73.49%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)33.35114.07205.13307.56422.43550.94583.23

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.80%9.80%9.80%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)102.91103.88104.86
Year 2 PV (M)166.96170.14173.35
Year 3 PV (M)225.83232.31238.92
Year 4 PV (M)279.83290.59301.66
Year 5 PV (M)329.25345.16361.67
PV of Terminal Value (M)5,122.835,370.265,627.17
Equity Value (M)6,227.616,512.356,807.63
Shares Outstanding (M)33.1833.1833.18
Fair Value$187.72$196.30$205.20
Upside / Downside-19.45%-15.77%-11.95%

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