Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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National Bank of Greece S.A. (ETE.AT)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Banks - RegionalSector: Financial Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$10.63 - $16.18$13.23
Multi-Stage$21.58 - $23.75$22.65
Blended Fair Value$17.94
Current Price$10.83
Upside65.65%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS0.00%0.00%0.360.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth--0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%-100.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--3.85%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.08%0.09%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)1,100.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)405.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)695.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)220.00137.5082.50
Cash Retained (M)695.00695.00695.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-220.00-137.50-82.50
(=) Excess Retained (M)475.00557.50612.50
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)911.71911.71911.71
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.520.610.67
LTM Dividend per Share0.440.440.44
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.520.610.67
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.971.061.12
WACC / Discount Rate7.03%7.03%7.03%
Growth Rate-1.87%-0.87%0.13%
Fair Value$10.63$13.23$16.18
Upside / Downside-1.82%22.20%49.37%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)1,100.001,090.401,080.871,071.441,062.081,052.811,084.39
Payout Ratio36.82%47.45%58.09%68.73%79.36%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)405.00517.44627.89736.37842.91947.531,003.06

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.03%7.03%7.03%
Growth Rate-1.87%-0.87%0.13%
Year 1 PV (M)478.56483.43488.31
Year 2 PV (M)537.07548.07559.18
Year 3 PV (M)582.52600.52618.87
Year 4 PV (M)616.70642.22668.53
Year 5 PV (M)641.14674.49709.20
PV of Terminal Value (M)16,822.9217,697.7718,608.65
Equity Value (M)19,678.9120,646.5021,652.75
Shares Outstanding (M)911.71911.71911.71
Fair Value$21.58$22.65$23.75
Upside / Downside99.30%109.10%119.30%

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