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Definitive Analysis

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Essent Group Ltd. (ESNT)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Insurance - SpecialtySector: Financial Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$233.31 - $1,356.28$433.20
Multi-Stage$135.72 - $148.48$141.98
Blended Fair Value$287.59
Current Price$63.56
Upside352.47%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS32.10%0.00%1.151.030.890.750.670.280.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth--11.13%15.29%18.53%11.98%136.51%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--1.98%1.75%2.23%1.83%1.42%1.08%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)702.89
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)121.97
(=) Cash Retained (M)580.92
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)140.5887.8652.72
Cash Retained (M)580.92580.92580.92
(-) Cash Required (M)-140.58-87.86-52.72
(=) Excess Retained (M)440.34493.06528.20
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)103.07103.07103.07
(=) Excess Retained per Share4.274.785.12
LTM Dividend per Share1.181.181.18
(+) Excess Retained per Share4.274.785.12
(=) Adjusted Dividend5.465.976.31
WACC / Discount Rate7.97%7.97%7.97%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$233.31$433.20$1,356.28
Upside / Downside267.07%581.56%2,033.86%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)702.89748.57797.23849.05904.24963.02991.91
Payout Ratio17.35%31.88%46.41%60.94%75.47%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)121.97238.66370.01517.42682.44866.71917.51

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.97%7.97%7.97%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)218.98221.05223.13
Year 2 PV (M)311.48317.42323.41
Year 3 PV (M)399.65411.12422.81
Year 4 PV (M)483.62502.22521.35
Year 5 PV (M)563.55590.77619.03
PV of Terminal Value (M)12,010.8612,590.9913,193.32
Equity Value (M)13,988.1514,633.5815,303.06
Shares Outstanding (M)103.07103.07103.07
Fair Value$135.72$141.98$148.48
Upside / Downside113.53%123.38%133.60%

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