Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Sector

Equites Property Fund Limited (EQU.JO)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: REIT - IndustrialSector: Real Estate

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$120.28 - $610.20$247.97
Multi-Stage$70.22 - $76.57$73.34
Blended Fair Value$160.65
Current Price$16.69
Upside862.56%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2025202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS10.78%48.82%1.551.721.861.501.130.930.700.560.370.13
YoY Growth---9.65%-7.40%23.49%33.53%20.97%32.75%26.00%48.95%189.51%342.54%
Dividend Yield--11.16%12.90%12.00%7.14%6.17%5.39%3.49%2.78%2.32%1.07%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)2,507.49
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)2,438.30
(=) Cash Retained (M)69.20
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)501.50313.44188.06
Cash Retained (M)69.2069.2069.20
(-) Cash Required (M)-501.50-313.44-188.06
(=) Excess Retained (M)-432.30-244.24-118.87
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)817.24817.24817.24
(=) Excess Retained per Share-0.53-0.30-0.15
LTM Dividend per Share2.982.982.98
(+) Excess Retained per Share-0.53-0.30-0.15
(=) Adjusted Dividend2.452.682.84
WACC / Discount Rate7.65%7.65%7.65%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$120.28$247.97$610.20
Upside / Downside620.64%1,385.73%3,556.07%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)2,507.492,670.482,844.063,028.923,225.803,435.483,538.54
Payout Ratio97.24%95.79%94.34%92.90%91.45%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)2,438.302,558.112,683.212,813.752,949.943,091.933,273.15

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.65%7.65%7.65%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)2,353.952,376.262,398.57
Year 2 PV (M)2,271.992,315.272,358.95
Year 3 PV (M)2,192.382,255.312,319.44
Year 4 PV (M)2,115.042,196.382,280.04
Year 5 PV (M)2,039.922,138.442,240.74
PV of Terminal Value (M)46,409.7848,651.3950,978.79
Equity Value (M)57,383.0559,933.0562,576.54
Shares Outstanding (M)817.24817.24817.24
Fair Value$70.22$73.34$76.57
Upside / Downside320.71%339.40%358.78%

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