Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Sector

Empire Company Limited (EMP-A.TO)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Grocery StoresSector: Consumer Defensive

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$160.83 - $589.04$498.04
Multi-Stage$88.56 - $97.03$92.72
Blended Fair Value$295.38
Current Price$54.50
Upside441.98%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2025202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS8.16%6.77%0.810.770.720.660.590.550.510.480.470.46
YoY Growth--5.67%6.76%8.55%12.48%7.48%8.54%4.82%2.43%1.74%9.73%
Dividend Yield--1.49%2.11%2.01%1.71%1.44%1.60%1.45%1.80%2.33%2.22%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)704.20
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)193.40
(=) Cash Retained (M)510.80
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)140.8488.0352.82
Cash Retained (M)510.80510.80510.80
(-) Cash Required (M)-140.84-88.03-52.82
(=) Excess Retained (M)369.96422.78457.99
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)236.15236.15236.15
(=) Excess Retained per Share1.571.791.94
LTM Dividend per Share0.820.820.82
(+) Excess Retained per Share1.571.791.94
(=) Adjusted Dividend2.392.612.76
WACC / Discount Rate6.33%6.33%6.33%
Growth Rate4.77%5.77%6.77%
Fair Value$160.83$498.04$589.04
Upside / Downside195.09%813.83%980.81%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)704.20744.85787.85833.33881.44932.32960.29
Payout Ratio27.46%39.97%52.48%64.99%77.49%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)193.40297.73413.45541.54683.05839.09888.27

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.33%6.33%6.33%
Growth Rate4.77%5.77%6.77%
Year 1 PV (M)277.36280.01282.66
Year 2 PV (M)358.83365.71372.66
Year 3 PV (M)437.85450.51463.41
Year 4 PV (M)514.49534.42554.91
Year 5 PV (M)588.80617.44647.18
PV of Terminal Value (M)18,735.0219,646.3320,592.76
Equity Value (M)20,912.3521,894.4122,913.58
Shares Outstanding (M)236.15236.15236.15
Fair Value$88.56$92.72$97.03
Upside / Downside62.49%70.12%78.04%

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