Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Dogan Sirketler Grubu Holding A.S. (DOHOL.IS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: ConglomeratesSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$21.04 - $78.69$35.34
Multi-Stage$12.96 - $14.19$13.56
Blended Fair Value$24.45
Current Price$15.57
Upside57.03%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-10.31%0.00%0.060.280.480.070.040.100.000.090.000.00
YoY Growth---78.50%-41.63%570.45%80.94%-61.88%0.00%-100.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--0.37%2.12%5.09%2.14%1.21%6.68%0.00%6.70%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)1,847.82
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)20.61
(=) Cash Retained (M)1,827.21
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)369.56230.98138.59
Cash Retained (M)1,827.211,827.211,827.21
(-) Cash Required (M)-369.56-230.98-138.59
(=) Excess Retained (M)1,457.651,596.231,688.62
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)2,538.022,538.022,538.02
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.570.630.67
LTM Dividend per Share0.010.010.01
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.570.630.67
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.580.640.67
WACC / Discount Rate8.42%8.42%8.42%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$21.04$35.34$78.69
Upside / Downside35.16%126.95%405.41%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)1,847.821,967.932,095.842,232.072,377.162,531.672,607.62
Payout Ratio1.12%18.89%36.67%54.45%72.22%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)20.61371.78768.531,215.281,716.852,278.502,412.05

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.42%8.42%8.42%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)339.69342.91346.13
Year 2 PV (M)641.57653.79666.13
Year 3 PV (M)926.95953.56980.67
Year 4 PV (M)1,196.491,242.501,289.83
Year 5 PV (M)1,450.831,520.911,593.67
PV of Terminal Value (M)28,337.0529,705.7431,126.81
Equity Value (M)32,892.5734,419.4036,003.23
Shares Outstanding (M)2,538.022,538.022,538.02
Fair Value$12.96$13.56$14.19
Upside / Downside-16.76%-12.90%-8.89%

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