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Canadian Tire Corporation, Limited (CTC-A.TO)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Specialty RetailSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$166.39 - $285.05$217.72
Multi-Stage$262.32 - $287.80$274.82
Blended Fair Value$246.27
Current Price$165.67
Upside48.65%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS8.21%9.79%6.536.555.914.924.774.404.033.082.862.76
YoY Growth---0.28%10.74%20.18%3.12%8.41%9.09%31.00%7.75%3.48%7.64%
Dividend Yield--4.37%4.86%3.35%2.61%2.68%5.18%2.77%1.85%1.81%2.04%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)729.90
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)362.70
(=) Cash Retained (M)367.20
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)145.9891.2454.74
Cash Retained (M)367.20367.20367.20
(-) Cash Required (M)-145.98-91.24-54.74
(=) Excess Retained (M)221.22275.96312.46
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)55.1055.1055.10
(=) Excess Retained per Share4.015.015.67
LTM Dividend per Share6.586.586.58
(+) Excess Retained per Share4.015.015.67
(=) Adjusted Dividend10.6011.5912.25
WACC / Discount Rate7.17%7.17%7.17%
Growth Rate0.76%1.76%2.76%
Fair Value$166.39$217.72$285.05
Upside / Downside0.43%31.42%72.06%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)729.90742.72755.77769.05782.56796.31820.20
Payout Ratio49.69%57.75%65.82%73.88%81.94%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)362.70428.95497.41568.15641.22716.68758.68

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.17%7.17%7.17%
Growth Rate0.76%1.76%2.76%
Year 1 PV (M)396.30400.24404.17
Year 2 PV (M)424.58433.05441.60
Year 3 PV (M)448.05461.53475.27
Year 4 PV (M)467.19486.02505.40
Year 5 PV (M)482.43506.85532.25
PV of Terminal Value (M)12,236.2312,855.6213,499.84
Equity Value (M)14,454.7915,143.3015,858.54
Shares Outstanding (M)55.1055.1055.10
Fair Value$262.32$274.82$287.80
Upside / Downside58.34%65.88%73.72%

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