Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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CNH Industrial N.V. (CNH)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Agricultural - MachinerySector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$4.21 - $6.40$5.24
Multi-Stage$8.96 - $9.85$9.40
Blended Fair Value$7.32
Current Price$10.85
Upside-32.56%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS16.49%0.00%0.480.430.340.150.010.230.190.130.160.00
YoY Growth--12.83%27.19%125.00%2,250.00%-97.17%16.46%44.64%-16.42%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--3.94%3.38%2.21%0.95%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)597.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)329.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)268.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)119.4074.6344.78
Cash Retained (M)268.00268.00268.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-119.40-74.63-44.78
(=) Excess Retained (M)148.60193.38223.23
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,253.001,253.001,253.00
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.120.150.18
LTM Dividend per Share0.260.260.26
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.120.150.18
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.380.420.44
WACC / Discount Rate6.88%6.88%6.88%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$4.21$5.24$6.40
Upside / Downside-61.24%-51.74%-40.98%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)597.00591.03585.12579.27573.48567.74584.77
Payout Ratio55.11%62.09%69.07%76.04%83.02%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)329.00366.95404.11440.50476.11510.97540.92

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.88%6.88%6.88%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)339.85343.32346.79
Year 2 PV (M)346.63353.74360.93
Year 3 PV (M)349.94360.76371.80
Year 4 PV (M)350.30364.82379.78
Year 5 PV (M)348.18366.31385.19
PV of Terminal Value (M)9,492.619,986.9110,501.60
Equity Value (M)11,227.5211,775.8712,346.09
Shares Outstanding (M)1,253.001,253.001,253.00
Fair Value$8.96$9.40$9.85
Upside / Downside-17.41%-13.38%-9.19%

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