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Definitive Analysis

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City of London Investment Group PLC (CLIG.L)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Asset ManagementSector: Financial Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$12.55 - $28.43$18.23
Multi-Stage$9.74 - $10.60$10.17
Blended Fair Value$14.20
Current Price$3.46
Upside310.37%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2025202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS24.50%13.38%0.420.320.390.300.200.140.140.130.120.12
YoY Growth--32.95%-18.81%30.36%52.56%39.32%2.63%2.83%9.56%1.11%0.37%
Dividend Yield--12.13%8.53%9.63%6.95%3.65%3.66%3.33%3.24%2.99%4.04%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)30.89
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)26.72
(=) Cash Retained (M)4.17
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)6.183.862.32
Cash Retained (M)4.174.174.17
(-) Cash Required (M)-6.18-3.86-2.32
(=) Excess Retained (M)-2.010.311.85
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)49.8349.8349.83
(=) Excess Retained per Share-0.040.010.04
LTM Dividend per Share0.540.540.54
(+) Excess Retained per Share-0.040.010.04
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.500.540.57
WACC / Discount Rate9.67%9.67%9.67%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$12.55$18.23$28.43
Upside / Downside262.76%426.93%721.54%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)30.8932.9035.0437.3239.7442.3243.59
Payout Ratio86.50%87.20%87.90%88.60%89.30%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)26.7228.6930.8033.0635.4938.0940.32

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.67%9.67%9.67%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)25.9126.1626.41
Year 2 PV (M)25.1325.6126.09
Year 3 PV (M)24.3725.0725.78
Year 4 PV (M)23.6224.5325.47
Year 5 PV (M)22.9024.0125.16
PV of Terminal Value (M)363.60381.16399.40
Equity Value (M)485.54506.54528.30
Shares Outstanding (M)49.8349.8349.83
Fair Value$9.74$10.17$10.60
Upside / Downside181.62%193.80%206.42%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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