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Definitive Analysis

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CH. Karnchang Public Company Limited (CK-R.BK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Engineering & ConstructionSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$13.13 - $21.55$16.88
Multi-Stage$26.16 - $28.79$27.45
Blended Fair Value$22.17
Current Price$11.30
Upside96.16%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-9.71%-2.78%0.300.250.390.200.200.500.450.500.650.60
YoY Growth--20.73%-36.53%100.01%-2.13%-60.00%11.15%-10.00%-23.11%8.33%50.82%
Dividend Yield--2.18%1.08%1.90%0.97%1.12%3.28%1.79%2.08%2.40%2.36%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)1,981.82
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)506.48
(=) Cash Retained (M)1,475.34
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)396.36247.73148.64
Cash Retained (M)1,475.341,475.341,475.34
(-) Cash Required (M)-396.36-247.73-148.64
(=) Excess Retained (M)1,078.981,227.621,326.71
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,686.731,686.731,686.73
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.640.730.79
LTM Dividend per Share0.300.300.30
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.640.730.79
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.941.031.09
WACC / Discount Rate6.42%6.42%6.42%
Growth Rate-0.69%0.31%1.31%
Fair Value$13.13$16.88$21.55
Upside / Downside16.21%49.40%90.73%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)1,981.821,988.001,994.192,000.392,006.622,012.872,073.26
Payout Ratio25.56%38.45%51.33%64.22%77.11%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)506.48764.291,023.691,284.701,547.331,811.581,917.76

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.42%6.42%6.42%
Growth Rate-0.69%0.31%1.31%
Year 1 PV (M)711.02718.18725.34
Year 2 PV (M)885.97903.90922.01
Year 3 PV (M)1,034.371,065.941,098.13
Year 4 PV (M)1,159.001,206.391,255.22
Year 5 PV (M)1,262.361,327.211,394.69
PV of Terminal Value (M)39,072.2141,079.3943,168.22
Equity Value (M)44,124.9346,301.0048,563.61
Shares Outstanding (M)1,686.731,686.731,686.73
Fair Value$26.16$27.45$28.79
Upside / Downside131.51%142.92%154.79%

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