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Definitive Analysis

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Chularat Hospital Public Company Limited (CHG-R.BK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Medical - Care FacilitiesSector: Healthcare

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$4.60 - $14.41$13.50
Multi-Stage$2.02 - $2.20$2.11
Blended Fair Value$7.80
Current Price$1.59
Upside390.81%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS6.96%9.21%0.070.090.260.060.050.050.030.040.040.03
YoY Growth---26.29%-62.76%325.25%19.93%0.00%56.26%-11.11%0.31%5.56%17.24%
Dividend Yield--4.12%3.23%7.04%1.55%1.71%2.38%1.66%1.87%1.44%1.27%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)796.71
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)770.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)26.71
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)159.3499.5959.75
Cash Retained (M)26.7126.7126.71
(-) Cash Required (M)-159.34-99.59-59.75
(=) Excess Retained (M)-132.63-72.88-33.04
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)10,999.0610,999.0610,999.06
(=) Excess Retained per Share-0.01-0.010.00
LTM Dividend per Share0.070.070.07
(+) Excess Retained per Share-0.01-0.010.00
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.060.060.07
WACC / Discount Rate6.83%6.83%6.83%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$4.60$13.50$14.41
Upside / Downside189.50%749.05%806.00%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)796.71848.50903.65962.391,024.941,091.561,124.31
Payout Ratio96.65%95.32%93.99%92.66%91.33%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)770.00808.77849.33891.74936.07982.411,039.99

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.83%6.83%6.83%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)749.97757.08764.18
Year 2 PV (M)730.31744.22758.26
Year 3 PV (M)711.03731.44752.24
Year 4 PV (M)692.12718.73746.11
Year 5 PV (M)673.56706.09739.87
PV of Terminal Value (M)18,626.2919,525.9520,460.04
Equity Value (M)22,183.2823,183.5224,220.71
Shares Outstanding (M)10,999.0610,999.0610,999.06
Fair Value$2.02$2.11$2.20
Upside / Downside26.84%32.56%38.50%

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