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Definitive Analysis

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Grupo Comercial Chedraui, S.A.B. de C.V. (CHDRAUIB.MX)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Grocery StoresSector: Consumer Defensive

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$503.46 - $1,324.24$1,241.01
Multi-Stage$185.79 - $203.48$194.47
Blended Fair Value$717.74
Current Price$149.00
Upside381.70%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS23.75%0.00%1.180.930.520.480.450.410.390.330.260.25
YoY Growth--26.82%78.22%10.00%7.01%9.09%4.14%18.40%29.26%2.12%0.00%
Dividend Yield--1.03%0.70%0.51%0.93%1.38%1.63%1.01%0.86%0.63%0.46%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)6,401.56
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)1,006.04
(=) Cash Retained (M)5,395.52
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)1,280.31800.20480.12
Cash Retained (M)5,395.525,395.525,395.52
(-) Cash Required (M)-1,280.31-800.20-480.12
(=) Excess Retained (M)4,115.214,595.324,915.40
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)961.39961.39961.39
(=) Excess Retained per Share4.284.785.11
LTM Dividend per Share1.051.051.05
(+) Excess Retained per Share4.284.785.11
(=) Adjusted Dividend5.335.836.16
WACC / Discount Rate6.62%6.62%6.62%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$503.46$1,241.01$1,324.24
Upside / Downside237.90%732.89%788.75%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)6,401.566,817.677,260.817,732.778,235.408,770.709,033.82
Payout Ratio15.72%30.57%45.43%60.29%75.14%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)1,006.042,084.333,298.544,661.796,188.337,893.638,356.28

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.62%6.62%6.62%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)1,936.631,954.981,973.34
Year 2 PV (M)2,847.612,901.852,956.60
Year 3 PV (M)3,739.313,846.653,956.03
Year 4 PV (M)4,612.024,789.394,971.82
Year 5 PV (M)5,466.055,730.076,004.18
PV of Terminal Value (M)160,011.94167,740.58175,765.01
Equity Value (M)178,613.57186,963.52195,626.99
Shares Outstanding (M)961.39961.39961.39
Fair Value$185.79$194.47$203.48
Upside / Downside24.69%30.52%36.57%

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