Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Cencosud S.A. (CENCOSUD.SN)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Department StoresSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$21,395.11 - $25,221.21$23,629.40
Multi-Stage$39,491.33 - $43,480.56$41,447.50
Blended Fair Value$32,538.45
Current Price$2,735.00
Upside1,089.71%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS15.53%0.53%21.03103.13128.30250.6032.6110.2225.5551.0981.1628.87
YoY Growth---79.61%-19.62%-48.80%668.52%219.09%-60.00%-49.99%-37.05%181.09%44.74%
Dividend Yield--0.73%6.01%8.35%16.17%2.12%1.15%2.16%2.76%4.00%1.71%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)365,825.79
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)41,941.21
(=) Cash Retained (M)323,884.59
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)73,165.1645,728.2227,436.93
Cash Retained (M)323,884.59323,884.59323,884.59
(-) Cash Required (M)-73,165.16-45,728.22-27,436.93
(=) Excess Retained (M)250,719.43278,156.36296,447.65
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)2,801.752,801.752,801.75
(=) Excess Retained per Share89.4999.28105.81
LTM Dividend per Share14.9714.9714.97
(+) Excess Retained per Share89.4999.28105.81
(=) Adjusted Dividend104.46114.25120.78
WACC / Discount Rate-18.34%-18.34%-18.34%
Growth Rate2.41%3.41%4.41%
Fair Value$21,395.11$23,629.40$25,221.21
Upside / Downside682.27%763.96%822.16%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)365,825.79378,306.52391,213.04404,559.89418,362.09432,635.17445,614.23
Payout Ratio11.46%27.17%42.88%58.59%74.29%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)41,941.21102,792.85167,747.78237,015.14310,813.58389,371.66412,193.16

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate-18.34%-18.34%-18.34%
Growth Rate2.41%3.41%4.41%
Year 1 PV (M)124,667.49125,884.80127,102.12
Year 2 PV (M)246,738.75251,580.84256,469.99
Year 3 PV (M)422,811.67435,318.66448,069.88
Year 4 PV (M)672,451.81699,103.67726,540.02
Year 5 PV (M)1,021,682.141,072,546.971,125,417.79
PV of Terminal Value (M)108,156,406.71113,541,014.47119,137,978.00
Equity Value (M)110,644,758.57116,125,449.42121,821,577.81
Shares Outstanding (M)2,801.752,801.752,801.75
Fair Value$39,491.33$41,447.50$43,480.56
Upside / Downside1,343.92%1,415.45%1,489.78%

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