Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Coca-Cola HBC AG (CCH.L)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Beverages - Non-AlcoholicSector: Consumer Defensive

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$310.17 - $839.63$786.85
Multi-Stage$119.21 - $130.42$124.71
Blended Fair Value$455.78
Current Price$44.08
Upside933.99%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-18.30%10.17%0.930.790.710.640.622.550.540.440.400.36
YoY Growth--18.28%10.38%11.39%3.50%-75.81%369.37%23.86%10.92%10.37%1.63%
Dividend Yield--2.82%2.96%3.20%2.11%2.32%8.43%2.00%1.64%1.91%1.83%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)1,542.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)714.10
(=) Cash Retained (M)827.90
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)308.40192.75115.65
Cash Retained (M)827.90827.90827.90
(-) Cash Required (M)-308.40-192.75-115.65
(=) Excess Retained (M)519.50635.15712.25
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)365.24365.24365.24
(=) Excess Retained per Share1.421.741.95
LTM Dividend per Share1.961.961.96
(+) Excess Retained per Share1.421.741.95
(=) Adjusted Dividend3.383.693.91
WACC / Discount Rate6.65%6.65%6.65%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$310.17$786.85$839.63
Upside / Downside603.65%1,685.06%1,804.78%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)1,542.001,642.231,748.971,862.661,983.732,112.672,176.05
Payout Ratio46.31%55.05%63.79%72.52%81.26%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)714.10904.011,115.601,350.871,612.021,901.412,012.85

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.65%6.65%6.65%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)839.70847.66855.61
Year 2 PV (M)962.50980.84999.34
Year 3 PV (M)1,082.571,113.651,145.31
Year 4 PV (M)1,199.931,246.081,293.55
Year 5 PV (M)1,314.651,378.141,444.07
PV of Terminal Value (M)38,141.1539,983.3841,896.12
Equity Value (M)43,540.5045,549.7547,634.01
Shares Outstanding (M)365.24365.24365.24
Fair Value$119.21$124.71$130.42
Upside / Downside170.44%182.92%195.87%

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